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Negative income shocks increase discount rates.

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Johannes Haushofer & Ernst Fehr

  • June 10, 2019
  • 2:43 am

SECTOR

Behavioral Research and Academic Engagements

PROJECT TYPE

Lab experiment

DOI

Location

Europe

BEHAVIORAL THEME

Income | Present bias
OVERVIEW

People with low incomes exhibit higher temporal discounting compared to richer
people, i.e., they are more likely to prefer smaller and sooner over larger and later
payments. Here we test whether this relationship reflects a causal effect of income on
discounting. In doing so, we distinguish whether changes in discounting reflect the
experience of a negative shock, or the resulting lower income levels. Participants in a
laboratory experiment randomly received different starting endowments, creating “rich”
and “poor” groups. All participants then performed a real effort task to earn money,
following which subgroups of participants received positive and negative income shocks.
Importantly, the magnitude of the shocks and the initial endowments were designed
such that they resulted in exactly identical income levels between those groups that did
and those that did not receive a shock. This design allows us to identify the effect of
income shocks on discounting, while exactly controlling for income levels.

THEMATIC AREAS

We find that negative income shocks lead to an increase in discounting; specifically, they exacerbate
present bias, the tendency to overvalue the present relative to the future. Conversely,
positive income shocks weakly decrease discounting. In contrast, high vs. low levels of
income in the absence of shocks do not affect discounting. The effect of income shocks
on discounting cannot be explained by shock-induced stress or negative affect, a desire
to break even, or reference point effects. Together, these findings suggest that poverty
increases discounting, and that this effect may operate through income shocks rather
than income levels.

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