The recent 2024 political protests in Kenya started out as an online exchange between different groups (primarily on X). Some Kenyans expressed dissatisfaction with the Finance Bill 2024. This bill was later dropped by the government following widespread protests that led to the storming of parliament by protestors on 25th June 2024 and multiple fatalities. The discontent morphed into calls for government accountability.
While Kenyans are not new to online debates, the events behind the mobilization of young Kenyans to protest against a key government policy is a compelling case study of how information ecosystems can influence social movements and citizen engagement. Historically, Kenyan youths have stayed away from policy discussions with an even lower number participating in elections. This is not unique to Kenya as similar observations have been made elsewhere. Our past studies within East Africa revealed that youth have low political efficacy (Busara, 2021). So, how did young people in Kenya mobilize themselves using hashtags to challenge the government?
Information diffusion can shape collective action
In the days preceding the protests and soon after, we witnessed a surge in public discourse on the finance bill, and calls for accountable political leadership. Kenyans shared contact details of members of parliament online to increase pressure to reject the bill. We also saw the amplification of campaigns through hashtags (such as #RejectFinanceBill2024 and #OccupyParliament), sharing infographics and varied opinions about the finance bill from public figures – including celebrities. The availability of up-to-date information through social media, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot that answered questions about the finance bill, translation of the bill into local languages, and short-form videos on Tiktok, Instagram, and X, made it possible for ordinary Kenyans to access policy information that was previously legal jargon or oversimplified by politicians.
This brought policy discussions in Kenya that were previously limited to the ruling elite and urban professionals to the mainstream, which allowed more people to form informed opinions about the finance bill and other governance issues. Information that appeals to people’s emotions can play a crucial role in building social movements. Kenyan citizens expressed dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, distrust in government institutions, and the feeling of being neglected by leaders. These constant information loops through social media can potentially encourage civic engagement among young peer groups and have been identified by some scholars as digital activism.
Intergenerational shifts impact how individuals consume information
There is an intergenerational shift in how public policy information is shared and consumed in Kenya. The use of social media to mobilize, including AI tools including chat GPT plugins developed to assess public policy and expose corruption, and catchy memes to critique the government on social media shows a gap between Gen Z audiences and older populations. Social media use is largely more entrenched among urban Gen Z and millennial audiences who have grown up with these information tools. This explains the deviation from past mobilization techniques. A Busara report in 2020 showed that older populations in Kenya have a preference for offline media channels and are less likely to use digital platforms to access news. This observation is backed by data from the Communications Authority which shows that while radio is still the most popular medium (at 77% in 2023, down from 92%, in 2014), internet use doubled in the same period (at 57% from 27%). These shifts are bound to have an impact on society. While President William Ruto observed that the rejection of the finance bill was due to propaganda; he recognizes that his government has to adapt to a younger, more-informed population. This could be why he held an engagement on X space to reach this younger community.
Moving forward, adapting information ecosystems will be key to fostering meaningful citizen engagement. Past evidence shows that different social media platforms have different impacts on mobilization attempts (Haro-de-Rosario et al, 2018). For instance, different levels of engagement between citizens and their governments are expected based on the platform chosen for communication (e.g., X or Facebook). Governments that invest in a more interactive strategy of online communication are more likely to receive reciprocal engagement from their citizens. We also find that personality traits influence the chances of mobilization (Margetts et al, 2015). Pro-social and pro-self individuals assimilate information differently and, therefore, respond to it distinctively. Pro-self individuals are those who will cooperate whenever the information provided allows them to act strategically. They are more likely to act if there is social pressure. The charismatic nature of some of the mobilizers of the 2024 protests and the evident lack of the usual political figures in the movement provided the feeling that the protests were unlike the past when politicians mobilized protests – such as 2023’s demonstrations by Azimio la Umoja.
Behavioral elements influence decision making
Looking at the political protests through a behavioral lens, we see that citizens feel empowered to actively engage with government decisions when they have confidence in their ability to interrogate politics. People who have placed value on education will feel like they have the competence and knowledge to make electoral decisions (Moeller et al., 2014), from holding representatives accountable to participating in legislative decisions using all the information resources available to them.
Peer influence among young Kenyans that was also a major driver of mobilization from online spaces to the streets. In essence, when a person experiences their entire social circle talking about one topic, they want to be part of it; and they want to feel included. Social pressure instigates people to feel inclined towards what has been done by their peers, to truly feel part of a community.
We can also look at the collective action that drove the protests using theoretical models derived from political economy as discussed by Bueno de Mesquita, E. (2016). That is, collective action as an issue of coordination or an issue of externality, where one person would bear the cost while another enjoys the benefits.
When we contextualize the role of online and offline information ecosystems, we can use this framework to interrogate why and how the behavioral elements mentioned earlier worked. Our first takeaway is that we can use collective action models to generate insights on how information is used more systemically, that is, whenever the sole provision of information is enough to mobilize or when we need to change incentives. For instance, if one person stays home, then another person has an incentive to stay home, and vice versa. In this case, using communication strategies and sharing information can change citizens’ behavior. To illustrate this; when we think about the days that were designated for protesting, sharing information that a protest will be at a specific place, at a specific day and time is enough incentive for people to meet. Otherwise, the costs of protesting would increase dramatically if only a few people showed up. When people have knowledge that their peers are mobilizing, their incentives are to also mobilize.
On the other hand, when people face externality problems, some individuals have opposite incentives. There are those who pay the cost of acting and those who enjoy the benefit of these actions. This is a classic free-rider problem: in a group project, someone does the work while someone else enjoys the benefits. In the case of mobilization, there are people more willing to pay the costs of mobilizing – by taking a day off work, facing police repression, and the fear of not achieving the goals of this mobilization. What does this mean? It means that when a person feels that enough people are mobilizing for the same cause and values that they defend, their participation is influenced by the prospects of achieving their collective goals. These factors influence that person’s decision to either leave their home and join their peers in the streets or to stay home and hope others go.
Online Information will continue to impact civic engagement
Evidently, the role of online information is becoming increasingly important in understanding the drivers of collective action, both positive and negative. We are investigating this phenomenon in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Looking at the challenges we face when considering collective action, the contextual role of information will be essential to understanding how information diffusion can indeed impact mobilization. We are now looking to expand local evidence on this theme and have already gathered some lessons. Our initial insights include the importance of tailoring communication strategies to different population segments and focusing engagement beyond political aspects to enhance civic engagement. We have also seen that successful initiatives in civic engagement are those that connect narratives of self-interest to the community’s interest.
Further research tackling the use of mis/disinformation online is needed for us to catch up with these innovations that have a growing influence on collective action in Kenya and across Africa. Instrumentalization of information for political gain, such as promoting polarizing discourses, is detrimental to social cohesion. Misinformation for instance can be used both to mobilize and to prevent demonstrations. A spot check on social media shows the spread of misinformation from multiple places either encouraging or discouraging protests. The influence of online information is far-reaching and must be assessed to prevent misuse of these platforms. The novelty of online information ecosystems and AI technologies is one of the reasons why it is hard to produce regulations, assign responsibilities, and designate who should be held accountable when we look at social media platforms and their role in the spread of misinformation. This might be why government agencies such as the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner find it harder to control information sharing.
Ultimately, how people consume information influences their response, the younger generation is seemingly restless for change as they live in an era where information access is wider, and faster. They live in a fast-paced world where there is an urgency to fulfill their destiny. At the same time, they look at the opulent lifestyles of politicians amid economic hardships which influences their perception of government. These factors make it easier to mobilize them using online information ecosystems. And while these ecosystems have been shown to facilitate rapid mobilization and awareness, (Sinpeng, 2021), the sustainability of such movements relies on continuous engagement and effective translation of online activism into offline actions.
We have witnessed the potential of mobilizing people for action using information ecosystems. As we move forward, it is crucial to investigate how these information ecosystems can maintain momentum to achieve long-term objectives. Understanding the local context and the specific challenges faced by different demographics will be key to refining these strategies. There is also no doubt that citizens – especially young people – are willing to take collective action on shared challenges and to hold their representatives accountable. However, we have also seen that information tools can be misused, potentially undermining democratic foundations rather than fostering a path towards more stable, democratic institutions. The role of information ecosystems is undeniably far-reaching, influencing both the promotion of good governance and the potential for significant change away from the democratic goal. We need to understand how they can benefit our society rather than undermine cohesion. That way, we can better equip future generations to navigate the complexities of mobilization using information ecosystems.
